Lautaro Martínez Chasing Ballon d'Or? The Real Goal is to End Inter Milan’s 13-Year Drought

Following a stellar performance in the Copa América, where he scored five goals to help Argentina clinch the title, Lautaro Martínez has become a hot topic in the football world. According to a poll by Italy's Gazzetta dello Sport, Lautaro is the frontrunner for the Ballon d'Or with 45.1% of the vote, ahead of other contenders like Rodri (26.3%) and Vinícius Jr. (17.3%). Similarly, France's L'Equipe has listed Lautaro as a major challenger in their article on the 68th Ballon d'Or favorites. This "challenger" label suggests he is a significant candidate, positioned ahead of well-known stars such as Dani Carvajal and even Lionel Messi.

This growing buzz has many Inter Milan fans dreaming: Can Lautaro pull off a major upset and bring the prestigious Ballon d'Or back to the Nerazzurri after many years? However, when considering reports from authoritative media and data from evaluation agencies, it is evident that while winning the Ballon d'Or might be a stretch for Lautaro, a more realistic goal is to secure a top-ten finish, something Inter players haven’t achieved in 13 years.

Historically, Inter Milan has boasted several Ballon d'Or winners, including legends like Lothar Matthäus and Luis Suárez in the 20th century and Ronaldo in the early 2000s. But expecting Lautaro to join this elite group this year seems overly ambitious. The British newspaper The Times provides a balanced perspective on Lautaro's chances, stating, "Lautaro enters the race with titles like the Serie A championship, Copa América, Serie A MVP, and Copa América Golden Boot. However, his early exit in the Champions League and not being the absolute key player for Argentina in the Copa América could lower his impact." The media did not mention another crucial point: The current prestige of Serie A does not compare to previous years.

In today's football world, there are two key rules when it comes to individual awards. First, no league title holds as much weight as the Champions League, especially in years without major tournaments. Even in tournament years, the importance of the Champions League has been growing. Second, even among the top five European leagues, the Serie A title does not carry as much significance as the Premier League or La Liga titles. Consequently, in the past 13 years, no Inter Milan player has come close to winning the Ballon d'Or or even making it into the top ten.

In 2010, Wesley Sneijder, with accolades including a treble with Inter, a World Cup runner-up finish, the Champions League's top assist provider, and joint top scorer at the World Cup, finished fourth in the Ballon d'Or voting with 14.48% of the vote. This result is still seen by Gazzetta dello Sport as a historic injustice. Nevertheless, it demonstrated that even with such an impressive resume, breaking into the top three was difficult. In the 2011 Ballon d'Or, Inter had two players in the top ten: Samuel Eto'o (8th, 1.43%) and Diego Forlán (7th, 1.48%), although Forlán's inclusion was more related to his performances outside of Inter. After 2011, Inter went through a decade-long slump, with no players making the top ten or even the top thirty in the Ballon d'Or rankings. This was not surprising given their absence from the Champions League and even, at times, the Europa League.

Inter Milan's ownership over the past years, including Massimo Moratti and Steven Zhang, has invested heavily in the club, often at a financial loss. However, the correlation between the owner's profits and the club’s players achieving recognition in major awards is often inversely proportional. It wasn't until 2021 that Inter had players back in the Ballon d'Or nominations. Romelu Lukaku finished 12th with 26 points, while Lautaro, fresh off a Copa América victory, shared 21st place with 6 points. Nicolò Barella, a European Championship winner, earned 1 point, tying for 26th place.

In 2023, Inter reached the Champions League final, and Lautaro scored 4 points in the Ballon d'Or voting, tying for 19th place with Harry Kane and Antoine Griezmann. Barella, although without points, also made the 30-man shortlist. This indicates that since 2011, Inter players have rarely been prominent in the Ballon d'Or voting, with a complete absence from the top 30 during a ten-year period.

Given this context, while it might be difficult for Lautaro to win the Ballon d'Or, achieving a high ranking would still be historically significant for Inter Milan. Currently, media buzz and fan discussions suggest that Lautaro may not make it into the top five of the Ballon d'Or, reflecting his lack of star power and personal acclaim. Although these attributes may not directly influence his on-field performance, they are crucial in the competition for major awards.

Reputable media outlets like L'Equipe and FourFourTwo predict Lautaro will be in the top ten but acknowledge that his score will likely be much lower than front-runners like Vinícius Jr., Jude Bellingham, and Rodri. Evaluation agencies also provide similar insights, with odds for Lautaro winning the Ballon d'Or ranging from 33 to 35—comparable to the odds of Tottenham or Aston Villa winning the Premier League, and significantly less favorable than those for Vinícius Jr. (2.0) and Rodri (2.5).

In summary, a realistic goal for Lautaro is to break into the top ten of the Ballon d'Or nominations, thus filling a 13-year gap for Inter Milan. Despite the challenge of winning the award, it is important to recognize that since 2011, Inter had no players in the top 30 until the recent resurgence. Achieving a top-ten finish would mark substantial progress for the club.

This year, if Lautaro manages to become the first Inter player in 13 years to crack the top ten, it would be a significant achievement.