Euro 2024 Qualifiers Group D: Croatia's Weakness Exposed, Turkey's New Coach Reaps Rewards of Predecessor's Work

The Euro 2024 qualifiers continue in Group D, with crucial matches on the horizon. On October 16th, Croatia faces Wales, and Turkey takes on Latvia. Croatia's offensive frailties have been a recurring issue, particularly against stronger opponents, while Turkey's new coach Vincenzo Montella is in a prime position to benefit from the solid foundation laid by his predecessor Stefan Kuntz. Here's an in-depth look at the upcoming fixtures and the dynamics at play.

Wales vs. Croatia - World Cup Bronze Medallists Struggle with Goal Scoring

Despite Gareth Bale's retirement, Wales still boasts a core of around seven players who ply their trade in the English Premier League, maintaining a respectable level of quality. However, their performance in the current Euro qualifiers has been disappointing. Out of five matches, their only victories came against the group's bottom team, Latvia, reflecting a bit of good fortune. With both Croatia and Armenia surprisingly losing in the last round, Wales finds themselves with a potential path to direct qualification.

Prior to hosting Turkey last week, Croatia had never lost a home match in a Euro qualifier and had successfully qualified for the last five European Championships. In their first encounter of the current campaign, Croatia secured a convincing 2-0 victory away against Turkey, making their recent home defeat to Turkey all the more shocking. After Burak Yılmaz capitalized on a mistake by Croatian goalkeeper Dominik Livaković, Croatia's chronic scoring issues were once again laid bare. Despite taking 17 shots, they failed to find the back of the net, resulting in both a painful loss and the relinquishment of their top spot in the group.

Currently, Croatia trails Turkey by three points but has played one less match and holds a goal difference advantage in their head-to-head record. This makes them still the favorites to top the group. In their previous meeting, Wales managed a dramatic equalizer in the second minute of added time, despite being on the back foot for most of the match. This was Wales' only shot on target. Croatia's midfield and forward lines are struggling with a lack of fresh talent, and their defense is no longer as solid as it was during the World Cup. This gives Wales a real chance to exploit Croatia's vulnerabilities and secure a 2-1 victory, further complicating the qualification scenario in Group D.

Turkey vs. Latvia - Montella Rides on Kuntz's Foundations

Following a 2-4 defeat to Japan in a friendly match, former Turkish head coach Stefan Kuntz was dismissed. Prior to that, Kuntz's team had been held to a draw at home by Armenia in the qualifiers. Despite being sacked, Kuntz felt unfairly treated, pointing out that Turkey was still in a position to qualify directly, and his work was at least satisfactory. Replacing Kuntz is the Italian coach Vincenzo Montella, known for his successful stint with Turkish club Adana Demirspor, where he achieved the best league finish in the club's history and secured their first entry into European competitions.

Although Montella parted ways with Adana Demirspor at the end of last season, he had already earned a solid reputation within the Turkish Football Federation. Following Kuntz's dismissal, Montella was invited to take charge of the national team. In his debut match, he led Turkey to a crucial victory against the group's strongest opponent, Croatia. Now, Turkey needs just one point against bottom-placed Latvia to secure qualification.

Latvia's position at the bottom of the group isn't surprising, but their winless streak in the first five matches was unexpected. In the previous World Cup qualifiers, Latvia's loss rate was only 50%. In their last home game against Armenia, Latvia finally showed their potential. Despite being reduced to ten men just seven minutes into the second half, they courageously attacked and secured a 2-0 victory.

Turkey is just one point away from qualification, while Latvia has already been eliminated. This means both teams will likely play without any psychological burden. Historically, Latvia has managed to draw all three of their previous away matches against Turkey. However, given the current gulf in confidence and motivation between the two teams, Turkey is expected to secure a comfortable 3-0 victory and confidently book their place in the Euro 2024 finals.

Tactical Breakdown and Key Players

In the Wales vs. Croatia matchup, the key tactical battle will revolve around Croatia's ability to break down a resilient Welsh defense. Croatia’s midfield, anchored by Luka Modrić, will need to find creative ways to penetrate Wales' defensive lines. However, the lack of a reliable striker continues to plague Croatia. Bruno Petković and Andrej Kramarić will need to step up their game and convert the chances created.

Wales, on the other hand, will rely on their defensive solidity and look to hit Croatia on the counter-attack. Players like Daniel James and Harry Wilson will be crucial in transitioning from defense to attack. Wales' defensive unit, led by Ben Davies, must remain organized and compact to thwart Croatia's attempts to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities.

In the Turkey vs. Latvia clash, Montella’s tactics will be under scrutiny. Known for his attacking philosophy, Montella is likely to set up Turkey to play aggressively from the start. The key players for Turkey will include Hakan Çalhanoğlu, who will orchestrate the midfield, and Burak Yılmaz, who has a knack for scoring crucial goals. Montella’s main challenge will be to ensure that Turkey doesn’t underestimate Latvia and maintains focus throughout the match.

Latvia, having nothing to lose, might adopt a more open and adventurous style. Key players like Vladislavs Gutkovskis will need to be at their best to trouble the Turkish defense. Latvia’s approach should be to disrupt Turkey’s rhythm and capitalize on any set-piece opportunities.

Impact of Coaching Changes

The coaching change from Kuntz to Montella for Turkey has already shown immediate results with the victory over Croatia. Kuntz’s groundwork laid a solid foundation, particularly in organizing the team’s defense and fostering a strong team spirit. Montella’s task is to build on this foundation and inject a more dynamic and attacking approach, which could prove beneficial in the long run. Montella’s familiarity with Turkish football, having coached in the Turkish Super Lig, gives him an added advantage in understanding the nuances of his players and the competitive landscape.

For Croatia, the focus remains on addressing their long-standing issue of converting possession into goals. The management needs to nurture and integrate young talents into the squad to provide more attacking options. The current reliance on an aging midfield and inconsistent forwards has made Croatia’s gameplay predictable and easier to defend against for stronger teams.

Future Implications

The outcomes of these matches will significantly influence the qualification race in Group D. A win for Wales against Croatia could open up the group and make the battle for the second qualification spot more intense. For Croatia, a loss would mean they need to win their remaining matches and hope for favorable results elsewhere. Turkey’s expected victory over Latvia would solidify their position at the top of the group, ensuring their qualification and allowing Montella to focus on preparing the team for the Euro 2024 finals.

Latvia, despite being out of contention, can play the role of a spoiler and gain valuable experience for their younger players. Their performance in the remaining matches can set the tone for their future campaigns.

As the Euro 2024 qualifiers progress, the dynamics within Group D will continue to evolve. The next round of matches will not only determine the standings but also provide insights into the strategies and strengths of the teams as they aim for a spot in the prestigious tournament. The road to Euro 2024 is fraught with challenges, and how these teams navigate through these will define their journey and legacy in European football.