South American World Cup Qualifiers Round 4 Preview: Brazil Faces Tough Challenge, Argentina Aims to Continue Clean Sheet Streak

The South American World Cup qualifiers continue on the morning of October 18th, as Brazil faces their first real challenge against Uruguay, while Argentina's defense, which has stifled opponents thus far, looks to maintain its impeccable record against Peru. With both teams having different trajectories, this round promises to be critical in shaping their paths to the World Cup.

Uruguay vs. Brazil - Bielsa's Double-Edged Sword

Uruguay, having qualified for the last four World Cups, is determined to keep this streak alive. In the previous qualifiers, they relied heavily on veteran strikers Edinson Cavani and Luis Suárez to secure their place in the tournament. However, the team seemed to lack upcoming talent, much like Chile. In recent years, Uruguay has seen a surge of young talent, with players from all lines now representing top European clubs.

In the last World Cup qualifiers, Uruguay scored just 22 goals in 18 matches, averaging 1.22 goals per game. They only managed to secure direct qualification thanks to a four-match winning streak at the end. To boost their attack, they hired the notorious coach Marcelo Bielsa in May. The impact was immediate, with Uruguay scoring six goals in their first three qualifiers, only one goal less than Brazil, their upcoming opponents. However, this improvement in their offensive output hasn't significantly enhanced their overall performance. Bielsa's coaching history suggests that his methods often yield short-lived success, making Uruguay's choice to hire him quite risky.

Brazil's head coach Fernando Diniz might have initially harbored hopes that if his results were impressive enough, the Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF) might reconsider replacing him with Carlo Ancelotti next year. The announcement of Ancelotti's appointment was made verbally by CBF president Ednaldo Rodrigues, but no official contract has been signed yet. However, Diniz's standing among Brazilian fans took a hit after the team's disappointing 1-1 home draw against Venezuela in the last round. With ten minutes left in the match, Diniz substituted both starting defensive midfielders, Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães, only for Venezuela to equalize five minutes later. This hasty decision-making has raised doubts about his tactical acumen.

Uruguay hasn't beaten Brazil since the 2002 World Cup qualifiers. In the last qualifiers, Brazil defeated Uruguay comprehensively in both encounters. Given Uruguay's current open style of play, defeating Brazil seems highly unlikely. Brazil is expected to secure a 3-1 victory.

Peru vs. Argentina - A Hostile Home Advantage?

Peru has had a poor start to this year's qualifiers, failing to win any of their first three matches and, like Paraguay, not scoring a single goal. In their last match against Chile, Peru held out for 74 minutes before conceding and then scoring an own goal late in the game, resulting in a 0-2 loss. They created only six shooting opportunities in the entire match, none of which were on target, highlighting their offensive struggles.

Home matches are crucial for South American teams to earn points, but Peru's first two home games of this campaign are against Brazil and Argentina, making it difficult to expect much success early on. While Peru's attacking woes have been disappointing, Argentina's defensive prowess is likely to leave them feeling hopeless. Argentina has not conceded a goal in their last seven matches since the World Cup final, allowing head coach Lionel Scaloni to utilize Lionel Messi more flexibly. In their last match against Paraguay, Messi played only 40 minutes, yet Argentina still won 1-0 thanks to Nicolás Otamendi's early volley.

In this round, Messi might start but is expected to play only about an hour. Argentina has found their best balance between attack and defense in the 21st century, and Peru's abilities are unlikely to disrupt this balance. The Albiceleste are likely to secure a 2-0 victory and take all three points.

Tactical Insights: Brazil’s Challenges and Opportunities

Brazil’s current qualifying campaign has been marked by a mix of high expectations and disappointing results. Diniz's tenure began with hopes of maintaining the team’s dominance in South American football, but the draw against Venezuela highlighted potential weaknesses. The match against Uruguay will be a crucial test of Diniz's tactical approach and the team's resilience under pressure.

Defensively, Brazil will need to be more cohesive and avoid the kind of lapses that allowed Venezuela to snatch a late equalizer. Offensively, Brazil’s attack must be more clinical. Neymar, Vinícius Júnior, and Richarlison need to step up and convert their chances to prevent any repeat of the frustrations faced in previous matches. The midfield battle will be key, and Diniz might reconsider his substitution strategy to ensure that the team maintains its structure throughout the match.

Uruguay’s Offensive Revival

Under Bielsa, Uruguay has shown a willingness to play more aggressively, a significant shift from their traditionally conservative style. This has resulted in an increase in goals but has also exposed their defense to vulnerabilities. Bielsa’s high-pressing and fast-paced attacking style requires exceptional fitness and tactical discipline, which can sometimes be challenging to sustain over a long qualifying campaign.

Uruguay’s young talents, such as Darwin Núñez and Federico Valverde, will be pivotal in implementing Bielsa’s tactics. Their ability to disrupt Brazil’s defense and capitalize on quick transitions could be crucial. However, maintaining defensive solidity against Brazil’s potent attack will be equally important. Bielsa will need to find the right balance between attacking zeal and defensive prudence to stand a chance against the Seleção.

Peru’s Struggles and Argentina’s Dominance

Peru’s start to the qualifiers has been far from ideal, with their offensive struggles being the most glaring issue. The match against Argentina, one of the strongest defensive teams in the world, will be a daunting challenge. Peru must find a way to break down Argentina’s defense, but this seems unlikely given their current form.

Argentina’s defense, led by Otamendi and supported by a solid midfield, has been impregnable. Scaloni’s strategic use of Messi, allowing him to rest and manage his minutes, ensures that Argentina’s talisman remains fresh and impactful. This approach has paid off, and Messi’s presence, even if limited, significantly boosts Argentina’s attacking threat.

Peru will need to exploit any potential complacency in Argentina’s defense and capitalize on set-piece opportunities to have any hope of scoring. Defensively, they must remain compact and disciplined to withstand Argentina’s attacks.

Looking Ahead

As the South American World Cup qualifiers progress, the trajectories of Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Peru will become clearer. Brazil's match against Uruguay will be a litmus test for Diniz’s tactical acumen and the team’s ability to perform under pressure. Uruguay’s offensive revival under Bielsa will be put to the test against a traditionally strong opponent.

Argentina’s quest to maintain their clean sheet streak and secure their spot at the top of the table seems likely to continue against a struggling Peru. Scaloni’s balanced approach and tactical flexibility have made Argentina a formidable force.

For Peru, the focus will be on regrouping and finding a way to turn their campaign around in the subsequent matches. Earning points against the likes of Brazil and Argentina is a tall order, but the qualifiers are long, and there will be opportunities to recover and compete for a World Cup spot.

The upcoming matches in this round of qualifiers will not only shape the standings but also provide insights into the strengths and weaknesses of these teams as they aim for a place in the 2026 World Cup.