Italian Experts Analyze Lautaro's Form: Why He's Scoring Eight Goals Less, and How Messi and Álvarez Might Help

In the aftermath of Serie A’s top-of-the-table clash, public scrutiny has lingered, with Inter Milan’s captain Lautaro Martínez bearing the brunt of criticism. Italian media outlets have been unrelenting, pointing out his recent shortcomings. Gazzetta dello Sport awarded Lautaro a match-low rating of 4.5, dedicating extensive coverage to the striker’s decline. Their breakdown indicates noticeable decreases in Lautaro’s shots, tackles, and passes compared to last season, concluding that he’s currently in his poorest form in years. On Sky Sports, an analysis shows that while Lautaro scored 14 goals by this point last season, he only has six this season, with five goals in Serie A and one in the Champions League—a deficit of eight goals compared to his previous performance. Pundits like Giuseppe Bergomi, Arrigo Sacchi, and Daniele Adani have weighed in on the issue, each dissecting what’s going wrong for Lautaro. Although opinions vary, one factor has emerged as a recurring theme: fatigue.

Some experts suggest that Lautaro’s deeper positioning this season may be at fault, with him taking more touches in Inter’s half and fewer in the attacking third. However, this interpretation doesn’t fully capture the situation; Lautaro’s touch count has decreased not only in advanced areas but also in defensive and midfield zones. A table comparing this season’s and last season’s touch statistics makes this trend strikingly clear. Others speculate that Lautaro’s Copa América Golden Boot win might have fostered complacency, leading him to cover less ground. This theory falls short too. According to official Serie A data, Lautaro’s average distance covered per game remains the same as last season, but his sprinting has notably decreased, and his sprint speed has slowed. A heat map comparison reveals that his general movement pattern remains largely consistent with last season’s, but high-intensity runs have dropped significantly. In short, physical exhaustion is taking its toll.

Media analysis in Italy singles out a significant culprit: Lautaro’s national team commitments with Argentina. With Lionel Messi sidelined, Lautaro has shouldered greater responsibility, playing more minutes in Argentina’s lineup and enduring an intense workload. Now, the hope is that a combination of Messi’s return and fellow Argentina forward Julián Álvarez’s emergence might offer Lautaro some much-needed relief.

Comparing Lautaro’s dual roles for club and country over the past year offers a clearer picture of the stark contrast in his form. Last year, after a summer without major international tournaments, Lautaro enjoyed a full preseason training regimen and hit the ground running in Serie A, scoring five goals in Inter’s first three games. This year, the summer’s Copa América disrupted his conditioning, resulting in him missing out on preseason fitness sessions. As a result, he went scoreless in Inter’s opening three league games.

Last September, Lautaro played minimal minutes for Argentina and returned to Inter in sparkling form, delivering standout performances against AC Milan and Real Sociedad, among others. Over a span of 21 days and seven matches, he registered six goals and one assist. This September, however, Messi’s absence meant that Lautaro was indispensable, starting and playing nearly the full 90 minutes in grueling matches against Chile and Colombia. He returned to Inter battered and bruised, and Simone Inzaghi had to bench him for the Manchester City game, effectively giving him a short rest period. Following this “recharge,” Lautaro found his rhythm again, contributing to goals in three consecutive matches.

A similar pattern unfolded in October. Last year, Lautaro played only one match as a starter during Argentina’s international window, returning to score against Torino and Atalanta. This October, Messi’s recovery allowed Lautaro to take a rare breather, with Scaloni resting him in Argentina’s game against Venezuela. Lautaro returned to score against Roma and maintained this form against Empoli and Venezia. However, after seven games in a packed 21-day schedule, his form faltered by the time Inter faced Napoli, his fatigue showing on the pitch.

These comparisons underline two key conclusions. First, a well-rested Lautaro is instrumental for Inter’s success. Second, Inter suffers when Argentina overuses him, while Lautaro’s club benefits significantly if the national team gives him some rest. Italian media outlets argue that Messi’s injury forced Scaloni to rely heavily on Lautaro, resulting in an extended slump that continued into his club performances. Now, with Messi back in the lineup, the situation seems to be easing.

Looking ahead, Italian pundits believe that Argentina’s upcoming international window could be pivotal for Lautaro. Should Scaloni grant him another brief respite, this rest might reinvigorate his form for Inter. Argentina faces Paraguay on November 14 and then returns to host Peru on November 19. Encouragingly, Álvarez has demonstrated tremendous form at Atlético Madrid, tallying four goals and one assist over three weeks. His momentum, along with Messi’s experience, could relieve Lautaro from excessive responsibility for Argentina, giving Inter a much-needed boost by allowing their captain to recharge.