Asian World Cup Qualifiers: China’s Home Advantage, Australia Content With Just Scoring

The AFC World Cup qualifiers for the 2026 edition continued on October 15th, with the Chinese national team set to face Indonesia. As a regular participant in the final stages of Asian World Cup qualifying, China has the benefit of experience on its side, while Indonesia is venturing into this stage for the first time. That advantage, combined with the home crowd at China's side, makes this a match with high expectations from the Chinese supporters. Elsewhere, Japan has yet to concede a goal in this stage, demonstrating its formidable stature, while Australia finally found the back of the net in their last match, a feat that itself deserves acknowledgment considering their rocky start.

China versus Indonesia promises intrigue, and China's supporters hope for more than just experience or a strong home atmosphere to shine through. In a series of mixed emotions filled with boos, sighs, and angry outbursts, China has trudged through its first three matches of the campaign. Up against three teams that participated in the previous World Cup, three straight defeats were not a shock, but the manner in which those games unfolded was a rollercoaster of emotions. The opener, a demoralizing 0-7 loss to Japan, caught fans by surprise and fueled widespread outrage. However, in the following two fixtures, China remarkably scored first, an unexpected turn of events given the quality of their opposition.

China’s recent match against Australia, despite ending in disappointment, provided brief glimpses of hope. The Chinese team played commendable football for the first 20 minutes, not due to any newfound superiority but rather a jittery Australian side reeling from two underwhelming performances that had eroded their confidence. When Xie Wen’neng opened the scoring, you could see the genuine concern etched on the faces of Australian fans and players. Yet, the Chinese side failed to hold on until halftime. A headed goal from a set piece brought Australia level, and from that moment on, the gulf in class became apparent. The second half reflected the real disparity between the two teams, and there is little more to add on that front.

Among the Chinese players, 21-year-old Hu Hetao became a focal point for fans' frustrations. Despite his reputation as a smaller, more agile midfielder, his performance was riddled with errors. A particular moment that damaged team morale came when he misjudged a horizontal long pass from a teammate, allowing the ball to skip past his head and out of play. Even more egregiously, he committed an unnecessary foul just before halftime, gifting Australia the free kick from which they equalized. His performance has likely cost him a starting role, but the hope remains that exposure to such high-pressure matches will accelerate his growth.

On the other side of the pitch, Indonesia has defied expectations, securing draws against two of the same teams that handed China defeats. Indonesia's resilience has been commendable, and in their recent outing against Bahrain, they were agonizingly close to victory. A late equalizer deep into stoppage time—coming in the 99th minute—denied Indonesia all three points, yet their performance exposed some inefficiencies. Despite having more opportunities against a slightly weaker opponent, Indonesia only managed five shots throughout the game. Given the profiles of their attacking players, there is an argument to be made that they should be showing more offensive initiative.

With the top four teams from each group continuing to have a chance to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, Australia’s recent triumph has propelled them into a direct qualification spot. Their first two games yielded no goals, but scoring in their latest fixture boosted their spirits significantly. As for China, a victory against Indonesia would reduce the gap between themselves and fourth place to within one match. Even in defeat, China’s hopes wouldn’t be entirely dashed. Against a team perceived as the weakest in their group, China has the opportunity to exert at least 30% of their potential. Meanwhile, Indonesia might be able to bring 20% to the table.

Japan versus Australia is a classic tale of a powerhouse against a struggling contender. Japan remains the undisputed giant of Asian football, an assertion supported by their flawless start, not conceding a single goal. Interestingly, just a few years ago, Japan’s qualifiers against Saudi Arabia were much tighter affairs, but they now seem invincible. This newfound dominance can be credited to improvements at both ends of the field. Up front, striker Ayase Ueda has become a reliable target man for Feyenoord, and his physicality gives him an edge in Asian competition. His backup, Koki Ogawa, adds even more height and strength, a testament to Japan finally addressing their long-standing striker issues. In goal, Shūichi Gonda has grown into a dependable presence despite past mistakes, having recently secured his first Serie A clean sheet, a feat that couldn’t have come at a better time.

For Australia, the recent match brought a sense of relief. Their long wait for a favorable opponent paid off, and they capitalized on the opportunity with an almost perfect game, climbing to second in the standings. Nevertheless, they remain realistic. They know that their “stars and moon” moment won’t last forever, as they will still have to face other heavyweights. Based on current form, the odds are slim that Australia will finish ahead of Saudi Arabia for a direct spot. Their objective in the upcoming clash with Japan is straightforward: to avoid a heavy defeat. Any outcome that doesn't involve being blanked will be seen as a respectable result and a morale booster.

The rivalry between Japan and Australia has evolved since that memorable 2011 Asian Cup final, a turning point where Japan began to consistently outclass the Socceroos. Australia has not beaten Japan in a competitive match since, and their recent World Cup qualifying campaign even saw them suffer a home defeat to Japan for the first time. The gap in quality between the two sides is reminiscent of the early days when Australia joined the AFC, only now the roles are reversed, with Japan as the superior side. The Samurai Blue are likely to play at 20% of their capacity and still maintain their unblemished defensive record.

This stage of the AFC qualifiers has been anything but predictable, and the upcoming matches promise further drama. China, with its blend of home support and battle-tested experience, hopes to capitalize on this golden opportunity. For Australia, merely finding the net against Japan would be an achievement worth celebrating. As the race for World Cup qualification heats up, both underdogs and favorites have everything to play for, and the road to 2026 looks as thrilling as ever.