Final Round of Euro 2024 Group B: Italy's Golden Opportunity, Spain's Rotation Strategy

The final round of matches in Euro 2024 Group B will take place on the morning of June 25 (Beijing time). Italy, having never beaten Croatia, now faces a Croatian team struggling with offensive issues and forced to play aggressively, a scenario that suits Italy's counter-attacking strengths. Meanwhile, Spain's rotated squad might perform as well as their starters, potentially creating a daunting challenge for Albania.

Croatia vs. Italy - Defending Champions Eyeing Historic Win

Despite being the reigning World Cup bronze medalists, Croatia has shown signs of decline, particularly in their attacking play. Veteran Luka Modric remains a crucial player, often expected to play the entire match, but he frequently finds himself isolated with limited support from the forward line. In their previous match against Albania, Croatia struggled, needing multiple passes to advance the ball into the opponent's penalty area, whereas Albania threatened Croatia's goal with simple counter-attacks.

Historically, Croatia's defense has been robust, a key factor in their third-place World Cup finish. However, this season, their defensive linchpin, Josko Gvardiol, has been tasked with numerous new roles at Manchester City, affecting his defensive capabilities. Unlike Manchester City, Croatia cannot compensate for his individual decline with a cohesive team defense.

Italy, though not at their peak, demonstrated solid defensive prowess in their last match against Spain, limiting their opponents' chances. While opportunities that could trouble other defenses were mitigated by Italy’s Gianluigi Donnarumma, his saves were often nullified by unforced errors from teammates, like Riccardo Calafiori's own goal. Donnarumma, who previously drew strength from the leadership of veterans like Giorgio Chiellini, now finds himself in a lonely battle to maintain Italy’s defensive solidity.

Croatia has never lost to Italy, primarily due to their physicality and technical skill overwhelming the Italians. However, with Modric being the sole technical standout and Italy's physicality improving, Croatia’s historical advantage diminishes. Moreover, Croatia's need to attack aggressively from the start provides Italy with ample opportunities to employ their signature counter-attacking strategy. Italy could capitalize on this, exerting minimal effort while Croatia might struggle to threaten Italy’s goal significantly.

Albania vs. Spain - Can Albania Lead Again?

Albania has secured one point from their first two matches, currently standing as the fourth-best third-placed team, barely edging out the Czech Republic by one goal. However, failing to secure points in this match could see their qualification hopes vanish. In both previous matches, Albania scored first but struggled to maintain their lead, quickly being overturned by Italy and nearly succumbing to a comeback by Croatia. The Albanian fans have endured nail-biting moments, with their team squandering numerous opportunities to seal victories due to players' reluctance to pass in counter-attacks, instead opting for unsuccessful individual efforts.

Facing a Spain side that has already secured the top spot in the group, Albania can only hope that Spain’s rotation weakens their performance. With their primary objective met, Spain will likely rest key players in this final group match. Spain’s control and breakthrough capabilities in their first two matches have evoked memories of their peak era, but they must remain vigilant. With up to three teams advancing from each group, opponents’ focus might wane compared to the previous 16-team format, potentially influencing their approach.

Albania's leads in previous matches had a significant element of luck, and it is unlikely a composed Spanish side will offer them such opportunities. Spain’s possession play is expected to be efficient, with even their rotated squad capable of delivering a strong performance, leaving Albania with slim chances of a standout display.

Tactical Breakdown and Key Players

Italy’s Counter-Attack vs. Croatia’s Defensive Gaps

Italy’s counter-attacking prowess will be crucial against Croatia. Roberto Mancini’s strategy has often relied on absorbing pressure and exploiting spaces left by aggressive opponents. Federico Chiesa and Lorenzo Insigne, with their speed and creativity, will be pivotal in transitioning from defense to attack. Italy’s midfield, anchored by Jorginho, will aim to disrupt Croatia’s build-up play and launch quick counters.

Croatia’s defense, particularly with Gvardiol’s current form, could be vulnerable to Italy’s rapid transitions. Modric’s role will be critical; not only must he orchestrate the attack, but he must also support defensively to prevent Italy from exploiting the spaces.

Spain’s Depth vs. Albania’s Resilience

Spain’s squad depth allows them to rotate without significantly dropping their performance levels. Players like Ferran Torres and Dani Olmo, who might not start regularly, have shown they can make impactful contributions. Spain’s possession-based play will aim to dominate the match, minimizing Albania’s opportunities to counter.

Albania’s defensive organization and counter-attacking efficiency will be tested. Players like Armando Broja will need to capitalize on limited chances, requiring clinical finishing and support from the midfield to break Spain’s control.

Potential Outcomes and Implications

A victory for Italy against Croatia would mark a significant milestone, their first-ever win against the Croatians, and solidify their tactical prowess under Mancini. Such a win would also boost Italy’s morale, reinforcing their defensive strength and counter-attacking efficiency as they progress in the tournament.

For Croatia, a defeat would underscore their ongoing struggles and the pressing need to rejuvenate their squad, especially in the attacking department. Modric’s brilliance remains their lifeline, but reliance on a single player is unsustainable for long-term success.

Spain’s approach against Albania, focusing on rotation, highlights their confidence and strategic depth. A comprehensive win with a rotated squad would reinforce Spain’s status as a tournament favorite, demonstrating their ability to maintain performance levels despite changes in personnel.

Albania faces a daunting task; their hope lies in defensive resilience and seizing any lapses from Spain’s rotated players. Even a draw could bolster their chances of advancing, emphasizing the significance of every point in this tightly contested group stage.

Broader Implications for Euro 2024

The outcomes of these matches will shape the narrative of Euro 2024, influencing team strategies and morale as they advance. Italy’s potential triumph and Spain’s depth showcase the evolving tactics in modern football, where versatility and squad rotation are paramount. The performances in these crucial matches will be analyzed for insights into team strengths, weaknesses, and adaptability under pressure.

Conclusion: Anticipation and Excitement

As the final round of Group B unfolds, the anticipation and excitement among fans and analysts alike reach a crescendo. Italy’s opportunity to break their historical jinx against Croatia, combined with Spain’s strategic rotations, sets the stage for a dramatic conclusion to the group stage. These matches will not only determine the immediate fates of the teams involved but also provide a glimpse into the tactical and strategic trends shaping Euro 2024.