Argentina Finds Its Strongest Lautaro in Five Years: The Leading Golden Boot Contender! Why Has His Impact Tripled?

As Inter Milan sees twelve of its players advancing in the UEFA Euro knockout stages, attention shifts to the Copa América, where Lautaro Martínez has become a standout performer. After scoring in consecutive matches, Lautaro is now the frontrunner for the Copa América Golden Boot. Just a week ago, Lautaro's odds for winning the Golden Boot were 8, trailing behind Lionel Messi, Vinícius Júnior, Julián Álvarez, and Darwin Núñez, not even making the top five contenders. Now, his odds have shortened to 2.75, surpassing Messi (5), Vinícius (6), and Álvarez (8), making him the most likely top scorer.

In his last five international matches, Lautaro has netted five goals, marking his best form for Argentina since 2019. In 2024 alone, Lautaro has appeared for Argentina six times, scoring five goals against Costa Rica, Guatemala, Canada, and Chile, and providing an assist against El Salvador. This performance is a stark contrast to his 2023 run, where he had zero goals and assists in eight matches. The last time Lautaro displayed such consistent scoring for Argentina was from June to September 2019. After facing worldwide ridicule following the Qatar World Cup, Lautaro has been consistently proving his worth for Argentina.

Many are asking what has caused this resurgence in Lautaro's form for Argentina. Major media outlets have provided insights. "Ole" highlights three reasons: first, Lautaro's current form, which saw a statistical explosion at his club, extending into the national team; second, the unwavering trust from coach Lionel Scaloni despite Lautaro's World Cup struggles; and third, his physical fitness, as he is now free from the injuries that plagued him during the World Cup.

"La Gazzetta dello Sport" adds further context, emphasizing the roles of Simone Inzaghi and Giuseppe Marotta at Inter Milan. In the past season, Inzaghi altered Lautaro's role on the pitch, positively impacting his performance for the national team as well. Additionally, Inter Milan's early contract renewal with Lautaro ahead of the Copa América allowed the captain to focus entirely on his performance. These points are valid, but there is another crucial factor that cannot be overlooked: Lautaro's recent scoring surge for Argentina is significantly attributed to his role as a substitute.

In modern football, the concept of the "super-sub" is legendary, with players like Ole Gunnar Solskjær and Miroslav Klose still etched in fans' memories. Personally, I believe that in contemporary football, Lautaro is the top "super-sub" who excels more as a substitute than as a starter. This assertion is backed by solid evidence.

Club Performance: Starter vs. Substitute

Since joining Inter Milan in July 2018, Lautaro has played 206 Serie A matches, accumulating 13,961 minutes. Out of these, he started 158 times, playing a total of 12,861 minutes and scoring 89 goals, averaging a goal every 144 minutes. In contrast, as a substitute, he made 48 appearances, totaling 1,100 minutes, and scored 19 goals, averaging a goal every 57.9 minutes.

International Performance: Starter vs. Substitute

Lautaro's international performance mirrors this pattern. In his last five matches for Argentina, where he scored five goals, three were as a substitute. These substitute appearances were at the 71st, 76th, and 73rd minutes, where he quickly made an impact. To date, Lautaro has played 60 times for Argentina, starting 43 matches for a total of 3,220 minutes and scoring 20 goals, averaging a goal every 161 minutes. As a substitute, he appeared 17 times, playing 330 minutes and scoring six goals, averaging a goal every 55 minutes – a threefold increase in efficiency.

When a pattern emerges both at the club and international levels, repeatedly over 30 or 50 instances, it ceases to be mere coincidence and becomes a significant trend. It is fair to say that Lautaro is a world-class "super-sub" who is often hampered when starting. His most potent moments come when he enters the pitch from the bench.

Reasons Behind the Super-Sub Phenomenon

Several factors contribute to this phenomenon. Firstly, Lautaro possesses excellent game-reading skills, allowing him to analyze opponents' weaknesses from the bench. Secondly, as a combative forward, his stamina can be an issue. When starting, he often expends too much energy in duels, leaving little for technical precision. As a substitute, he can exploit tired defenders without this concern.

Moreover, Lautaro's versatility is both a strength and a limitation. While proficient with headers and both feet, he is neither exceptionally tall nor highly technical. Against fresh, well-organized defenses, his effectiveness diminishes. However, when coming off the bench, he finds more space to operate as the opposition tires, significantly enhancing his impact.

The Lautaro of 2024: A Renaissance

Lautaro's resurgence in 2024 is a testament to his resilience and adaptability. His goal-scoring spree for Argentina, particularly as a substitute, underscores his ability to deliver when it matters most. His five goals in six matches, including crucial contributions in games against varied opponents, highlight a player reborn.

After the Qatar World Cup, where Lautaro faced criticism, his ability to bounce back and prove his detractors wrong speaks volumes about his mental strength. This turnaround can be attributed to several factors, including tactical adjustments by club and national team coaches, his improved physical condition, and his role as a substitute.

The Future: Starter or Super-Sub?

Given Lautaro's incredible efficiency as a substitute, there is a compelling argument for maintaining this role to maximize his impact. While the allure of starting is undeniable, the evidence suggests that his true strength lies in coming off the bench. Whether Inter Milan and Argentina will continue to leverage this strategic advantage remains to be seen, but for now, Lautaro is thriving in his role.

As Lautaro continues to shine in the Copa América, his journey from a ridiculed World Cup participant to a potential Golden Boot winner serves as an inspiration. His story is a reminder of the power of resilience, adaptability, and strategic utilization of player strengths. Whether as a starter or a super-sub, Lautaro's contributions will undoubtedly be crucial for Argentina's success in the tournament.