Euro 2024 Group D Final Round: Should the Netherlands Trust Depay? France and Poland Await Star Players' Starts

As the final round of Group D matches in Euro 2024 approaches, scheduled for the early hours of June 26, there is much at stake for three of the teams. The Netherlands, France, and Austria all have a shot at clinching the top spot in the group. Although Austria currently sits in third place, they are the only team with a positive goal difference among the third-place teams, giving them a solid chance of advancing even if they don't move up in the standings. Poland, on the other hand, has already been eliminated, making their final match less suspenseful. The upcoming clashes—Netherlands vs. Austria and France vs. Poland—will be pivotal in determining the final group standings and setting the stage for the knockout rounds.

Netherlands vs. Austria: Time for Depay to Seize the Opportunity

In their previous match, the Netherlands failed to secure a win against a France team missing Kylian Mbappé, leaving them at the top of the group only due to a superior goal difference. Xavi Simons scored for the Netherlands in the 69th minute, but the goal was disallowed after a lengthy VAR review, which ruled that Denzel Dumfries had obstructed French goalkeeper Mike Maignan. Despite coach Ronald Koeman’s frustration, the decision was correct based on the replay evidence.

The Dutch team had also faced France in the Euro 2024 qualifiers, suffering two defeats, including a 0-4 loss away from home, with Mbappé contributing significantly to both games. Therefore, the Netherlands had hoped to capitalize on Mbappé's absence in their recent encounter. However, despite the introduction of super-sub Wout Weghorst in the last 10 minutes, they couldn’t secure a win. Fans may be inclined to see more of Weghorst, who at least brings hope, compared to Memphis Depay, whose recent performances have been underwhelming.

Austria, on the other hand, delivered a strong performance against Poland, maintaining hopes of topping the group. Their victory was characterized by efficient finishing and fewer defensive errors compared to Poland. Even if Austria finishes third in the group, their positive goal difference gives them a good chance of advancing. However, Marcel Sabitzer's poor form has been a concern; his misplaced passes and poor decision-making have frustrated his teammates, particularly Marko Arnautović. Austria will need Sabitzer to regain his form to challenge the Netherlands effectively.

The last time Austria faced the Netherlands in the European Championship group stage, they lost 0-2, with goals from Depay and Dumfries. Depay, who has been struggling lately, could find his rhythm again in this crucial match, potentially helping the Netherlands deliver a strong performance. Meanwhile, Austria’s attack might not be as potent as it was against Poland, especially against Virgil van Dijk’s well-organized Dutch defense.

France vs. Poland: Should Lewandowski Start?

France's performances in their first two group matches have been underwhelming, even with Mbappé on the field for their narrow win over Austria. N'Golo Kanté was named Man of the Match, highlighting the lackluster contributions from France's other attacking talents. In their game against the Netherlands, Didier Deschamps started Marcus Thuram as the central striker, but he failed to replicate his club form. Olivier Giroud came on as a substitute with 15 minutes remaining but couldn't change the game’s outcome.

Deschamps has favored a midfield trio of Adrien Rabiot, Aurélien Tchouaméni, and Kanté, providing defensive solidity but lacking creativity. Deschamps might consider introducing Eduardo Camavinga, whose passing ability could enhance their midfield’s attacking potential. Mbappé, if he decides to play despite his injury concerns, could be the key to France’s offensive link-up, having already shown his readiness by scoring twice and assisting twice in a recent closed-door friendly against Paderborn U21.

Poland, following Robert Lewandowski's era, has struggled to produce another top-tier European star. Their journey to this point has been challenging, and their weaknesses were exposed against Austria. Despite finally fielding Lewandowski in the 60th minute against Austria, his physical condition seemed far from ideal, and he failed to make a significant impact. Given Poland's limited attacking options, coach Czesław Michniewicz faced a tough decision regarding Lewandowski's participation. Nevertheless, as Poland’s only global star, it’s understandable why he would be given a chance, despite the apparent risks.

In their last World Cup knockout stage meeting, France comfortably defeated Poland 3-1. With France’s evident superiority and Poland’s lack of motivation, the match appears one-sided. However, if Lewandowski can find his form, he might inspire Poland to a respectable performance.

Tactical Analysis and Strategic Considerations

The Netherlands: Balancing Hope and Realism

The Dutch team needs to balance optimism with strategic pragmatism. Ronald Koeman must decide whether to continue relying on Depay, who has struggled to find form, or give more opportunities to Weghorst, who has shown promise in critical moments. Koeman's tactical adjustments will be crucial in unlocking Austria’s defense, especially given Austria's ability to capitalize on opponents' mistakes.

Austria: Maintaining Momentum and Addressing Weaknesses

Austria’s focus should be on maintaining the momentum from their win against Poland while addressing Sabitzer’s form issues. Franco Foda needs to ensure that Sabitzer aligns better with his teammates and avoids costly errors. Defensively, Austria must be vigilant against the Netherlands’ potent attack, led by Depay and Dumfries. A disciplined defensive approach combined with efficient counter-attacks could see Austria challenging for a top spot.

France: Creative Solutions and Strategic Adjustments

Deschamps needs to address the creative shortcomings in France’s midfield. Integrating Camavinga could provide the necessary creative spark. If Mbappé is fit, his presence will be crucial in linking up play and providing attacking impetus. Deschamps must also consider the balance between defensive stability and attacking flair, ensuring that France does not rely too heavily on individual brilliance.

Poland: Leveraging Experience and Building for the Future

For Poland, the focus should be on leveraging Lewandowski’s experience while also looking towards future squad development. Michniewicz must decide on the best use of Lewandowski, considering his physical condition and the potential impact on the team’s overall performance. Poland’s strategy should emphasize solid defensive organization and quick transitions, utilizing the strengths of their available players.

Broader Implications for the Tournament

The outcomes of these final group matches will have significant implications for the tournament. A strong performance by the Netherlands could establish them as serious contenders, while a win for Austria would underscore their potential as dark horses. For France, a convincing victory would restore confidence and momentum, crucial for their campaign's progression. Poland, despite their slim chances, can use this match as an opportunity to build team cohesion and prepare for future competitions.

The final round of Group D is set to be a decisive and thrilling conclusion to the group stage. As teams vie for advancement and positioning, the tactical battles and individual performances will be pivotal. Fans around the world will be eagerly watching as the drama unfolds, determining who will move forward in Euro 2024 and who will see their journey come to an end.