Olympic Men's Soccer Quarterfinals: Japan No Longer Needs to Hide Their Strength, Morocco Relies on Over-Age Players

The quarterfinals of the Olympic men's soccer tournament kicked off on the evening of August 2nd, Beijing time. Japan's U23 team, after a commanding victory over Paraguay in their opening match, adopted a more subdued approach in their subsequent games, seemingly intent on not revealing their full strength too early. Morocco’s standout player during the group stage has undoubtedly been Ayoub El Kaabi, the recent AFC Champions League top scorer and MVP. As an over-age player, his game-reading abilities have been unmatched by his younger teammates.

Japan U23 vs. Spain U23 - When Will They Concede?

It was no surprise to most fans that Japan’s U23 team made it out of the group stage. However, their three wins and zero goals conceded were quite unexpected. In their opening match against Paraguay’s U23 team, Japan's star player, Mitoma Kaoru, scored the first goal within 20 minutes and forced a red card from the opponents just five minutes later. From that point, the game was entirely under Japan’s control, culminating in a 5-0 victory that set the tone for their group dominance.

In the following two group matches, Japan appeared to hide their sharpness. Although they secured victories, the margins were narrower, and the decisive goals came in the final 10 minutes of the matches. In their last group match against Israel’s U23 team, Japan rotated six players but maintained their performance level, highlighting the minimal difference in quality between their starters and substitutes.

Spain, on the other hand, suffered a surprising defeat to Egypt in their final group match, finishing second in their group. Prior to this match, both teams were at the top of their group and needed only a draw to advance. Egypt was content with a draw, while Spain dominated early on, showing glimpses of their senior national team’s style. However, unlike their senior counterparts, Spain's U23 defense was subpar.

Egypt’s first goal came from a robust challenge that knocked over a Spanish defender, leading to a quick run down the right flank and a shot at goal. The shot was fast but straight, and should have been an easy save for Spanish goalkeeper Iturbe, who unfortunately reacted too late. The second goal resulted from a defensive error by Spain, showcasing their lack of focus.

Japan's U23 performance in this Olympics has mirrored Spain's senior team in the Euros, with the Blue Samurai poised to unleash their full potential. Meanwhile, Spain's U23 counterattacks seem unlikely to pose a significant threat to Japan.

Morocco U23 vs. USA U23 - Over-Age Players as Game Changers

The Moroccan U23 team’s strength in this tournament rivals that of their senior national team. In their opening match, they displayed their trademark characteristics, eventually securing a 2-1 victory over Argentina in a roller-coaster game. However, they were stunned by Ukraine in their second match, complicating their path to the knockout stage. Fortunately, Morocco returned to form in their final group match, thrashing Iraq’s U23 team 3-0 and claiming the top spot in the group based on head-to-head results.

The USA U23 team had a steady group stage performance. Against the host nation France, they held firm until the second half when over-age player Lacazette broke the deadlock. After conceding, the USA became unsettled and ultimately suffered a 0-3 defeat. However, in their next two matches, the USA did not give their opponents any chance to score, securing early leads within the first 20 minutes and winning by three-goal margins.

Before Morocco’s final group match, all their goals were scored by Ayoub El Kaabi, while USA’s attacking midfielder Milosevic was the key player, opening the scoring in their last two matches. The clash between these two over-age players is the highlight of this match. With more experience, Morocco can potentially unleash 30% of their strength, while the USA might only manage 10%.

Japan U23 - A Rising Power

Japan’s U23 team has been nothing short of impressive, with their star player Mitoma Kaoru leading the charge. Mitoma’s ability to turn the tide in Japan’s favor early in matches has been crucial. Against Paraguay, his opening goal and the ensuing red card for Paraguay shifted the game’s momentum entirely in Japan’s favor. Despite the dominance, Japan’s tactical decisions in subsequent matches suggest a deliberate effort to not reveal their full hand too early.

Coach Hajime Moriyasu has smartly rotated his squad, ensuring that his key players are well-rested while still securing victories. The squad depth is evident, as the performance level remains high even with significant changes in the lineup. This approach not only preserves the team’s energy but also keeps their strategies and strengths under wraps until necessary.

Spain’s U23 team, in contrast, has shown vulnerability, particularly in defense. Their match against Egypt highlighted defensive frailties that Japan could exploit. Spain’s U23 team has not demonstrated the same level of tactical discipline and defensive solidity as their senior team, which could be their undoing against a well-organized and disciplined Japanese side.

Morocco U23 - Experience Over Youth

The Moroccan U23 team’s reliance on Ayoub El Kaabi has been both their strength and a potential weakness. El Kaabi’s experience and scoring prowess have been pivotal, but it also means the team’s attacking threat is heavily dependent on him. His ability to read the game and position himself effectively has been unmatched, providing Morocco with a crucial edge in tight matches.

However, Morocco’s unexpected loss to Ukraine exposed potential vulnerabilities. It underscored the need for other players to step up and share the scoring burden. In their final group match, Morocco displayed their true potential, but their over-reliance on El Kaabi remains a concern.

The USA’s U23 team, while showing resilience and tactical discipline, faces a significant challenge against Morocco. Milosevic’s contributions have been vital, but the team’s overall experience and tactical awareness will be tested. The USA’s performance against France revealed their susceptibility to pressure from high-quality opposition, a factor Morocco will look to exploit.

The Road Ahead

As the tournament progresses, both Japan and Morocco will need to adapt and potentially unveil their full capabilities. Japan’s tactical acumen and depth give them a slight edge, while Morocco’s reliance on their star player requires a more balanced approach to succeed in the knockout stages.

The upcoming quarterfinals promise to be a thrilling showcase of young talent and experienced leadership. Japan and Morocco’s performances will be closely watched, as they navigate through tactical challenges and intense competition.