Milan Derby to Decide AC Milan Manager's Fate

Three rounds into the Serie A season, the two clubs in Milan find themselves in vastly different situations. At the top end of the table, four teams are tied with 7 points each, with Inter Milan temporarily claiming the top spot due to a superior goal difference. On the other side of the city, however, AC Milan languishes near the bottom with just 2 points from three matches, and the controversy surrounding Rafael Leão and Theo Hernández shows no signs of abating. The hashtag "Fonseca Out" has been trending across social media.

Even before this situation escalated, many AC Milan fans had already begun chanting "If we don't win, blame the coach," hoping to hasten the departure of their new manager, Paulo Fonseca. RedBird Capital, Milan's ownership group, is reportedly reluctant to hire another high-salary coach, partly due to budgetary constraints. Many Italian pundits expressed concern when Fonseca was appointed, pointing out that his first priority should be to avoid the mistakes of Marco Giampaolo, who failed to establish control over the dressing room. Giampaolo lasted just seven games, managing three wins and four losses before being sacked for his inability to earn the players' trust. Even he secured 3 points in his first three games, whereas Fonseca has managed even less. By attempting to make an example out of Leão and Theo to assert his authority, Fonseca has stirred up confusion and made his situation more complicated — and potentially dangerous.

The storm of "Fonseca Out" posts on Western social media only underscores the precariousness of his position. According to Sky Sports, Fonseca is not in immediate danger of being dismissed, but his fate will largely be determined by the outcome of the next three matches: against Venezia, Liverpool in the Champions League, and the Milan Derby. Among these, the Milan Derby is undoubtedly the most crucial. As the Italian media have noted, should AC Milan suffer a seventh consecutive Derby defeat, the fans' anger would likely target not only the manager but also players like Furlani and Ibrahimović, and perhaps even the ownership group behind the scenes. In fact, the ultras in the South Stand are already starting to direct the blame in this direction. Should it come to that, the powers that be might have no choice but to take some action, scapegoating someone in order to protect themselves — a common phenomenon in Serie A.

Many experts argue that Stefano Pioli's sacking last season was the result of multiple factors, but the "final straw" was undoubtedly the sixth consecutive Derby defeat, which saw city rivals Inter Milan claim their second star. Now, once again, the fate of a Milan manager is intertwined with the outcome of the Derby, prompting many to reflect on the intertwined destinies of the two clubs that share the same city yet are eternal rivals.

Inzaghi’s Winning Streak and Fonseca’s Challenge

The Italian sports daily Gazzetta dello Sport recently published a special report highlighting that last season, Inter Milan manager Simone Inzaghi managed to remain unbeaten against all the top-eight teams in Serie A. After beating Atalanta earlier this season, his unbeaten streak against top Serie A teams has now extended to an impressive 468 days. The reasons for this streak are manifold, ranging from tactical development to meticulous preparation and specific game plans. However, another crucial factor is managerial control. The Italian media noted that for managers with less fame or limited reputation, the most important initial task upon taking over a big club is not to push for tactical revolutions but to first establish control over the team. In this respect, Fonseca could learn from Inzaghi's cautious approach when he first arrived at Inter Milan.

AC Milan legend and notorious anti-Inter commentator Massimo Ambrosini, now a television pundit, pointed out that the visible distance between Theo Hernández and Rafael Leão and the rest of the squad shows that “the unease among the players is already very apparent, even if they offer various explanations, but these cannot hide the truth. Their discomfort is clearly not just because they were left out of the starting lineup.”

Ambrosini continued, criticizing Fonseca's decision to make sweeping changes involving key players before he had solidified his authority. “This seems to be a bit reckless,” he argued. By contrast, in his first year at Inter, Inzaghi was extremely cautious. Even when Samir Handanović was performing poorly, and André Onana was playing exceptionally well, he refrained from making drastic changes, to the point where some Inter fans were unhappy. What puzzled many back then is now being understood in hindsight, through the lens of Fonseca’s current predicament. Inzaghi needed a ‘handle’ to strengthen his mutual trust with the dressing room, ensuring that his tactical plans could be effectively implemented by most of the players. As his tenure lengthened and his results earned him respect, Inzaghi no longer needed to be so cautious, even when dealing with star players.

For Fonseca, who has yet to establish that level of trust, making moves against players like Leão and Theo, whom the fans consider among the best in the world in their positions, carries significant risk.

A Defining Moment Ahead

Fonseca's current predicament is certainly challenging. Entering this critical phase with a Derby that could determine his job security adds a layer of complexity. But it could also be an opportunity — should he manage to end AC Milan’s streak of Derby defeats, he might just stabilize his wavering position and find a turning point in his early tenure. However, if he loses the Derby, the heavy weight of a seventh consecutive defeat will become an overwhelming burden that could endanger his position.

The situation, where the opponent is backed against the wall, also means Inter Milan will face a tougher challenge. The Milan Derby is always a fierce contest, but this one carries extra significance. A win could provide Inzaghi's Inter with continued dominance over their city rivals, while a defeat could shift the momentum, offering Fonseca a reprieve and a chance to turn his fortunes around.

The Lessons of the Past

Reflecting on Inzaghi’s tenure provides a useful contrast for Fonseca. Inzaghi took over at Inter Milan at a time when the club was in a delicate situation. They had just won the Scudetto under Antonio Conte, but several key players left during the transfer window, and expectations were still sky-high. Inzaghi’s approach was one of caution, aiming first to win the trust of his squad and ensure stability, rather than immediately overhauling tactics or personnel. He needed a period of transition, and he navigated it carefully.

Now, with Inter Milan unbeaten against the top eight teams for over a year and positioned at the top of the table, it is evident that Inzaghi's careful initial steps laid a strong foundation for subsequent success. Fonseca, however, appears to have opted for a more direct approach, aiming to impose his authority swiftly. While such an approach can sometimes yield quick results, it often carries a higher risk, especially when the dressing room has yet to fully buy into the new manager’s vision.

The lessons from Milan’s shared past and present suggest that the city's football fortunes are often intertwined, with the fate of one club inevitably influencing the other. This dynamic, charged with rivalry and passion, adds another layer of intrigue to the Milan Derby. As always, the Derby is about more than just points or pride — it is about defining moments that shape the course of a season, and sometimes, even the future of a manager.

For Fonseca, the stakes are immense. A victory could buy him time and trust, while a defeat might seal his fate. As the countdown to the Derby begins, all eyes in Milan are fixed on the two managers standing on opposite sides of the city, each aware that the outcome of this game could be decisive for their respective futures. The stage is set for a battle that could reverberate well beyond the confines of the San Siro.