Inter's Grueling Post-Champions League Serie A Schedule: Six Tough Matches Highlight the Challenge Ahead

A recent in-depth analysis from the Italian media has reignited concerns about Inter Milan’s grueling schedule, particularly how their Serie A fixtures following Champions League matches seem far more difficult than those faced by other top teams in Italy. This review sheds light on the unique challenges awaiting the Nerazzurri and raises the question: Is Inter being set up for failure by the fixture list?

The Italian Football Federation (FIGC) has been accused of creating a more difficult calendar for Inter, especially when considering the rigorous demands of competing in both the Champions League and Serie A. Inter’s Champions League schedule itself is no walk in the park. Their group stage matches include encounters against top teams such as Manchester City (away), Red Star Belgrade (home), Young Boys (away), Arsenal (home), RB Leipzig (home), Bayer Leverkusen (away), Sparta Prague (away), and AS Monaco (home). These are grueling matches that will undoubtedly push Inter’s squad to the limit.

The real issue, however, lies in the Serie A matches that follow these Champions League games. Right after each European contest, Inter faces some of the toughest teams in the Italian league. Their post-Champions League opponents are AC Milan, Torino, Juventus, Napoli, Fiorentina, Lazio, Lecce, and AC Milan again. Of these eight opponents, only Torino and Lecce can be considered lower-tier teams. The others are all either title contenders or clubs that are consistently in the race for European qualification. This stark contrast in competition following Champions League matches means that Inter’s recovery period between high-intensity games will be minimal, putting them at a significant disadvantage compared to their domestic rivals.

To provide further context, let’s compare Inter’s schedule with that of other Serie A clubs participating in the Champions League. Juventus, for instance, faces Napoli, Cagliari, Inter, Torino, Lecce, Venezia, Napoli again, and Empoli following their European fixtures. Five of these teams are mid-to-lower tier Serie A clubs, making Juventus’ schedule relatively lighter in comparison. AC Milan’s post-Champions League opponents include Inter, Fiorentina, Bologna, Cagliari, Empoli, Genoa, Parma, and Inter. While Milan faces their city rivals twice, their other opponents are much more manageable, featuring a mix of mid-table and lower-ranked sides. Atalanta, the other Champions League competitor, arguably has the easiest schedule of all. After their European fixtures, they face Como, Genoa, Verona, Udinese, Roma, Cagliari, Como again, and Torino. Atalanta’s only truly tough opponent in this list is Roma, while the rest are teams that Atalanta should comfortably beat.

It is clear from this comparison that Inter’s post-Champions League schedule is the most challenging of all the top Italian teams. They not only have to contend with back-to-back tough matches, but they also have fewer opportunities to rotate their squad without risking dropped points. This is a key factor in the Italian media’s argument that Inter is being dealt an unfair hand in the 2023-24 season.

The reasoning behind why Inter has been handed such a difficult schedule is less clear. Some fans have suggested "conspiracy theories," hinting at intentional bias from the FIGC. However, these claims are largely speculative, and no concrete evidence supports this notion. What is undeniable, though, is that Inter Milan’s squad is aging, with their average starting XI for the first three Serie A matches of this season being over 30 years old. This makes them the oldest squad in the league by some margin.

Given this, it is highly optimistic to expect these veteran players to recover fully after intense midweek Champions League matches and then compete at a high level against strong Serie A opponents just a few days later. The likelihood of fatigue-related injuries and subpar performances increases significantly when the team has only 3-4 days of rest between matches. Should Inter drop points in these key domestic fixtures, it could severely hinder their chances of retaining the Serie A title.

The current situation leaves Inter with two potential strategies, according to Italian pundit Altobelli. The first strategy involves lowering their Champions League ambitions in the initial phase, aiming only to finish in the top 24 teams and secure a spot in the play-off round. This would involve mentally preparing for an additional knockout round in February, while prioritizing domestic league success in the meantime. By doing this, Inter could avoid sacrificing too many Serie A points, a mistake they made during the 2022-23 season when they lost 12 out of 38 league matches due to Champions League fatigue.

The Champions League format this season is slightly more forgiving, with the top eight teams from the group stage progressing directly to the round of 16, while teams that finish between 9th and 24th enter a two-legged play-off to determine the remaining round of 16 participants. Data from various analytics firms and simulations suggests that earning eight points (a projection of 7.6 points) from the group stage should be enough to secure a top-24 finish. To finish in the top eight, however, Inter would need around 17-18 points (with the projection being 17.1 points). This would require at least five wins and minimal losses, a much more difficult target given the strength of their group-stage opponents like Manchester City, Arsenal, and RB Leipzig.

The first strategy, therefore, would involve aiming for a lower point threshold, winning two matches and drawing two others to reach eight points and focus on Serie A in the meantime. This conservative approach could help Inter balance their Champions League and domestic aspirations without overstretching their squad.

The second strategy is more ambitious: aiming for at least 17 points in the Champions League group stage while adopting a more refined squad rotation policy to manage both competitions effectively. This is a strategy that Italian football legends like Fabio Capello have suggested. Last season, Simone Inzaghi's rotation approach was inconsistent. He would sometimes make wholesale changes, swapping seven or eight players—including the goalkeeper—for certain matches, only to field the same starting XI for consecutive games afterward. While this tactic had some success, it was not sustainable over the long term.

Capello has argued that a more balanced rotation policy, with only two or three players being rotated per match, could allow Inter to remain competitive in both the Champions League and Serie A without overexerting their key players. By rotating consistently in every game rather than making sweeping changes, Inzaghi could keep his players fresher over the course of the season. In theory, this would give Inter a better chance of achieving their ambitious goals in both competitions. However, this strategy is far from easy to implement and requires precise management of squad fitness, form, and tactics.

In summary, the upcoming season presents a monumental challenge for Inter Milan. Their post-Champions League schedule is, without question, tougher than that of Juventus, AC Milan, and Atalanta. With six difficult Serie A matches following their eight Champions League games, the mental and physical strain on Inter’s squad will be immense. How Simone Inzaghi navigates this period—whether through conservative expectations or bold squad rotation—will ultimately determine the success of their campaign. The stakes are high, and the margin for error is slim.