UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifiers Group D: Wales' New Tactical System Takes Shape, Croatia Needs a Strategic Approach

The UEFA Euro 2024 qualifiers in Group D continued on the night of November 18th, Beijing time, with Wales emerging victorious in their last two matches. This remarkable performance, especially their win against Croatia in the previous round, has significantly boosted the Red Dragons' hopes of qualifying. Coach Robert Page seems to have successfully led the team out of the post-Bale era. Although Croatia's aging lineup has been a concern for some time, the presence of a seasoned player like Modrić makes it difficult for any coach to exclude him. Hopefully, the World Cup third-place finishers will manage Modrić's playtime more effectively.

Armenia vs Wales - Have the Red Dragons Forgotten Bale?

Due to Croatia's recent poor performances, Armenia's chances of qualifying for the Euro finals are increasingly slim. They now find themselves in a position where they must surpass both Wales and Croatia to qualify directly, as even the opportunity to participate in the playoffs seems out of reach. Armenia's failure to defeat bottom-ranked Latvia in the last round, which would have allowed them to level points with Wales and Croatia, has significantly diminished their hopes. In a high-stakes offensive duel, Armenia lost 0-2 to Latvia, who capitalized on their opportunities with remarkable efficiency. Armenia's own performance was characterized by impatience, as they frequently resorted to long-range shots from outside the penalty area. Despite 19 attempts on goal, only two were on target, posing little threat to Latvia's goal and ultimately gifting them their first victory of the qualifiers.

While Armenia's situation continues to worsen, Wales is on an upward trajectory. In their last home match, they defeated World Cup bronze medalists Croatia 2-1, drawing level with them on points and securing Turkey's spot in the finals. Despite Bale's retirement, Wales still featured five Premier League players in the match against Croatia, suggesting that their overall strength may not have diminished. Without relying on Bale's individual brilliance, the team's collective coordination seems to have improved. Armenia's 20-year-old forward Ranos made a significant impression by scoring twice in the first leg against Wales, handing the Red Dragons their first defeat of the qualifiers. However, the current Welsh squad has moved past Bale's retirement, and with high morale, they are likely to secure a 2-0 victory away against Armenia, taking a solid step toward qualification.

Latvia vs Croatia - Has Modrić Played Too Much?

With no chance of advancing to the Euro finals, Latvia finally let go of their burdens, securing a clean 2-0 home victory against Armenia. This win lifted them out of the group of teams with zero points, which includes San Marino, Liechtenstein, Cyprus, Gibraltar, and Malta. Although Latvia is considered one of the weaker teams in the group, they should not be underestimated when performing at their best. Their defeat to Turkey in the previous away match was not surprising and should not impact their morale.

When the group draw results were announced, many expected World Cup bronze medalists Croatia to qualify easily. However, after six matches, Croatia has not secured a direct qualifying spot, a scenario few would have predicted. The team faces the challenge of transitioning to a new generation, and while Modrić remains an outstanding player, his role as Croatia's absolute core is only feasible if his physical condition allows. In the last three Euro qualifiers, Modrić started and played the full 90 minutes, but it might be more effective for him to come on as a substitute in the second half.

The most exciting young talent in the current Croatian squad is undoubtedly Gvardiol. Apart from his struggles against Messi in the World Cup, he has consistently demonstrated the qualities of a world-class center-back. However, his current season at Manchester City has placed a heavy psychological and physical burden on him, affecting his recent performances. His error in the match against Chelsea directly led to a goal, and his form in this match remains uncertain. In the first leg against Latvia, Croatia secured a 5-0 victory, allowing Modrić a rare 30-minute rest. Given the significance of this match, Modrić is expected to start again. While Latvia's recent form has improved, their limited strength suggests Croatia should be able to secure a 2-1 victory, maintaining pressure on Wales.

Analysis and Implications

The evolution of Wales' tactical approach without Bale has been a revelation. Coach Robert Page has successfully implemented a system that maximizes the team's collective strength, compensating for the absence of their former star player. The reliance on Premier League talent indicates a robust foundation, and their recent performances suggest that Wales can be a formidable force in the upcoming Euro 2024 finals, should they qualify.

Croatia, on the other hand, faces a critical juncture. The strategic management of Modrić's playtime will be pivotal in determining their success. While his experience and skill are invaluable, over-reliance on the veteran could prove detrimental. Integrating younger talents like Gvardiol more effectively and distributing the workload will be crucial for Croatia as they navigate the remaining qualifiers.

Armenia's chances have dwindled significantly, and their inability to capitalize on key opportunities, as seen in the match against Latvia, highlights the challenges they face. Their offensive strategy needs refinement, particularly in terms of efficiency and composure in front of goal. The team's future prospects will depend on addressing these issues and potentially nurturing young talents like Ranos to provide a more consistent threat.

Latvia's resurgence, albeit too late to impact their qualification hopes, underscores the unpredictable nature of football. Their victory against Armenia serves as a reminder that even teams considered underdogs can have a significant impact on the qualification landscape. This unpredictability adds an exciting dimension to the remaining matches in Group D.

As the qualifiers progress, the dynamics within Group D will continue to evolve. Wales and Croatia are poised for a tight race, each match carrying immense weight in determining their fates. The strategic decisions made by their coaches, particularly in managing player workloads and optimizing team performance, will be under intense scrutiny. Meanwhile, Armenia and Latvia, despite their current standings, have the potential to influence the group's outcome through unexpected results and performances.

The journey to the Euro 2024 finals promises to be an exhilarating one, with every match contributing to the unfolding drama. The tactical evolutions, player performances, and strategic decisions will all play a part in shaping the final outcome of Group D.