Euro 2024 Semifinals: How Much Has Spain Been Worn Down? France’s Biggest Advantage is Kanté

Spain has advanced to the semifinals of Euro 2024 after a hard-fought victory over Germany in the quarterfinals. Both teams have won the European Championship three times each, but if Spain wins this tournament, they will stand alone at the top of the championship leaderboard. On the other hand, France, with two European titles and a runner-up finish at their home Euro in 2016, aims to add another title to their crowded trophy case.

Spain has undoubtedly been the most cohesive team in this year's European Championship. Despite having future star Lamine Yamal in their ranks, his inexperience has shown, particularly in his decision-making and timing of shots. Nevertheless, Yamal has been one of Spain's standout performers in this tournament. Spain's success has largely been due to the players' collective understanding of when to accelerate the pace, which has been crucial in their matches.

Their quarterfinal opponent, Germany, while not lacking in individual talent, struggled with tactical execution. If the German team had played with the cohesion of Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen and capitalized on their home advantage, Spain might have had a tougher time. The game was also marked by a controversial incident involving Toni Kroos. His severe foul on Pedri in the third minute, which warranted a yellow card, became a focal point of post-match discussions. Referee Anthony Taylor's leniency, likely influenced by Germany's home advantage, allowed the match to continue with minimal interruption.

Pedri's injury and subsequent substitution turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Spain. Dani Olmo, who came on for Pedri, not only took over his playmaking duties but also proved to be more effective in the final pass and shot execution. Olmo's goal gave Spain the lead, but it also led to a conservative approach from the Spanish side, a stark contrast to their peak years from 2010 to 2012 when they could control possession and deny Germany any chance to equalize.

The match went into extra time with both teams becoming more cautious. Here, the coaching prowess of Spain's manager, Luis de la Fuente, became evident. His substitution of Mikel Merino, who scored the eventual winning goal in extra time, was a testament to Spain's stronger attacking intent. Germany, relying on their high success rate in penalty shootouts, chose not to take risks in extra time, a decision that ultimately backfired.

Spain's victory, however, came at a cost. They will face the semifinals without three key players due to suspensions. Pedri and Robin Le Normand's absences are not overly concerning for fans, as capable replacements are available. The most significant loss is Dani Carvajal, who received a yellow card in the dying moments of extra time. Carvajal's tactical awareness and timing in both defense and attack are unmatched in the Spanish squad. There was initial confusion when TV broadcasts showed Alvaro Morata receiving a yellow card, which would have led to his suspension. However, UEFA later confirmed that this was a mistake, and Morata remains available for the semifinals.

In contrast to Spain's thrilling quarterfinal match, France's quarterfinal was a subdued affair, seemingly aiming for a penalty shootout from the outset. This conservative approach has been a theme for France throughout the tournament, and it's not due to a lack of effort from their attacking players, led by Kylian Mbappe. Coach Didier Deschamps' decision to substitute Mbappe in the second half of extra time, just before the penalty shootout, indicates that Mbappe is not in top form. Nevertheless, in the penalty shootout, all French players found their shooting boots, leaving their opponents' goalkeeper with no chance.

Spain would likely prefer to avoid another penalty shootout, having been eliminated in shootouts in their last three major tournaments. Despite their injuries, Spain's overall strength remains superior, but the key player for France will be N'Golo Kante. If Kante can successfully neutralize Olmo, Spain's offensive capabilities will be significantly hindered.

This semifinal clash between Spain and France promises to be a tense and tactical battle. Given both teams' cautious approaches, it wouldn't be surprising if the match extends into 120 minutes of play. Should it go to penalties, France’s track record gives them a considerable advantage.

Spain, with its blend of young talent and seasoned players, has shown remarkable resilience and tactical flexibility throughout the tournament. The absence of Pedri and Carvajal will test the depth of their squad. However, their ability to maintain possession and control the pace of the game will be crucial against a French side known for their disciplined and structured play.

France, on the other hand, relies heavily on the defensive prowess and midfield control provided by Kante. Their conservative game plan might not excite fans, but it has proven effective. The real question is whether France can stifle Spain’s creative midfield and exploit any defensive lapses.

The match is set to be a fascinating encounter of styles and strategies, with both teams looking to outmaneuver each other tactically. Spain’s recent performances have demonstrated a newfound mental toughness and ability to adapt in high-pressure situations. France’s disciplined approach and reliance on key players like Kante and Mbappe will be tested against a Spanish side that thrives on quick, incisive passing and movement.

As the teams prepare for this crucial semifinal, the stakes could not be higher. Spain seeks to cement their legacy with another European Championship, while France aims to reclaim their place at the top of European football. The outcome will depend on which team can impose their style of play and handle the inevitable pressure of such a high-stakes match.