Euro 2024 Round of 16: Did the Netherlands Accurately Predict Their Situation? Turkey's Strategic Group Stage Maneuvers

The last two matches of the Euro 2024 Round of 16 will take place in the early hours of July 3rd, Beijing time. Both the Netherlands and Romania managed to earn 4 points during the group stage, but the results placed the Netherlands in third and Romania in first within their respective groups. In a surprising turn of events, the Netherlands’ 4-point performance proved more advantageous than a potential 9 points might have been. Turkey’s 0-3 loss to Portugal in the second group stage match was baffling both in score and gameplay, leading to speculation that coach Vincenzo Montella preferred a second-place finish over a group-topping performance.

Romania vs. Netherlands - A Windfall for the Third-Place Group Finisher

Romania’s advancement from the group stage was already a remarkable achievement, given that their last such success came 24 years ago. What’s more astonishing is that they managed to secure first place in their group for the first time in the nation’s history. They did so with just 4 points, making them the group winner with the fewest points in the history of the European Championship—a feat possible only in the extreme scenario of all four teams in a group finishing with 4 points each.

Romania’s 3-0 victory over Ukraine in their opening match laid the foundation for their group-topping performance. They executed their game plan with precision, disrupting Ukraine’s passing lanes whenever they advanced the ball. Consequently, Ukraine failed to create any significant scoring opportunities. On the offensive side, Romania's players relied on individual skills to break down the defense and create passing lanes. The team’s midfield maestro, Nicolae Stanciu, occasionally evoked memories of a prime Andrés Iniesta with his ball control and playmaking.

The Netherlands, on the other hand, provided a mixed bag of emotions for their fans. From a purely competitive standpoint, their 2-3 loss to Austria in the final group stage match, which relegated them to third place, was disappointing. However, from a strategic perspective, their entry into the lower half of the knockout bracket, thus avoiding many of the stronger teams, was beneficial. Moreover, their first knockout stage opponent was the weakest group winner, Romania. Had the Netherlands topped their group, they would have faced Turkey in the Round of 16, a far tougher challenge.

The Netherlands’ recent encounters with Romania have been overwhelmingly favorable, with the Dutch winning by at least three goals in each of their last three meetings. Despite Romania's current form, their likelihood of playing to their potential is slim compared to the Netherlands. With Cody Gakpo enjoying a prolific tournament, the Dutch have a good chance of performing well and progressing further.

Austria vs. Turkey - Tactical Considerations?

Given Austria's group stage opponents, including France and the Netherlands, and the fact that their star defender David Alaba has been sidelined due to injury, their group-topping performance is even more impressive than Romania’s. In their opening match against France, Austria did not show any signs of intimidation and even had more possession than the reigning World Champions. An unfortunate own goal cost them points, but they quickly dispelled any doubts about their attacking prowess by scoring six goals in their next two group stage matches.

In their final group stage match against the Netherlands, Austria again benefited from an own goal to open the scoring, highlighting the role of fate in their journey. Turkey, on the other hand, has been the most surprising team in the group stage, not due to their outstanding or terrible performance but because of their strategic approach.

After an emphatic 3-1 victory over Georgia in their opener, Turkey made four changes, including the goalkeeper, for their second match against Portugal. The team showed no fight, and a comical own goal by center-back Berkay Akyıldız will go down in European Championship folklore. In their final group stage match against the Czech Republic, Turkey exploited their opponent’s desperation to snatch a last-minute 2-1 victory, finishing as the highest-scoring second-place team and securing a place in the lower half of the knockout bracket. Coach Vincenzo Montella’s tactical acumen was on full display.

Turkey’s wing play during the group stage was particularly impressive. Even in their match against Portugal, they posed significant threats from the flanks. Austria’s warm-up match in March, where they thrashed Turkey 6-1, saw Turkey’s goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır, now the third-choice keeper, between the posts. The result of a friendly match holds little significance, and Turkey’s full-strength approach should not be underestimated. They are likely to perform at around 20% of their potential, while Austria’s good fortune may have been exhausted in the group stage, leaving them at only 10% of their capability for this clash.

The upcoming Round of 16 fixtures promise intriguing battles, with strategic maneuvers and individual brilliance set to shape the outcomes. Both the Netherlands and Turkey have demonstrated the importance of tactical foresight, but it remains to be seen whether their strategies will pay off in the knockout stages. The unfolding drama in Euro 2024 continues to captivate football fans worldwide, with every match offering new twists and surprises.