Champions League Matchday 5: AC Milan Approaches Favorable Schedule While PSG Drifts from Elite Status

The fifth round of the UEFA Champions League group stage unfolded in the early hours of November 27, Beijing time, with AC Milan and Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) at pivotal moments in their European campaigns. Both clubs, historically considered European powerhouses, face contrasting trajectories—Milan finds themselves on a promising path, while PSG appears to be losing its grip on elite status.

AC Milan’s Path to Redemption

After a grueling first four rounds that pitted AC Milan against top contenders from the Premier League, Bundesliga, and La Liga, the Rossoneri managed to secure six points—a result that meets the minimum expectation. Given the strength of their initial opponents, including Manchester City and Real Madrid, those points were hard-earned. Now, with the most challenging fixtures behind them, Milan’s upcoming matches present a significant opportunity to boost their points tally and secure a spot in the knockout rounds.

Their next opponent, Slovakian champions Slovan Bratislava, sits at the bottom of the group table after suffering four consecutive defeats. Even Celtic, one of the weaker teams in the competition, managed to put five goals past Bratislava. Despite their poor form, Bratislava remains only five points behind the playoff spots, keeping their qualification hopes alive. However, their aggressive approach against similarly matched opponents has often left them exposed, leading to heavy defeats.

In contrast, Milan’s campaign has been a story of steady improvement. A pivotal moment came when they defeated Real Madrid away from home, a victory that propelled them into the playoff positions and reversed their negative goal difference. This win, which was not initially part of their strategic calculations, significantly boosted their chances of advancing.

Timing Is Everything

Milan’s triumph over Real Madrid came at a crucial moment. Los Blancos were still reeling from a heavy defeat to arch-rivals Barcelona, a psychological setback that Milan capitalized on. Rafael Leão, Milan’s dynamic winger, had a standout performance, consistently exploiting Madrid’s right-back Lucas Vázquez. The Rossoneri also dominated the midfield, bypassing Madrid’s defensive lines with ease. A final scoreline of 4-1 or even 5-1 would have more accurately reflected the balance of play.

However, Milan’s domestic form has been less convincing. A 3-3 draw against Cagliari, followed by a lackluster 0-0 stalemate with Juventus, suggests that Stefano Pioli’s side may be conserving energy for their European fixtures. Both Milan and Juventus appeared to be prioritizing their Champions League commitments, making the goalless draw a predictable outcome.

Slovan Bratislava: Fighting for Survival

While AC Milan may not expect a significant challenge from Slovan Bratislava, the Slovakian side has everything to play for. A loss would all but eliminate their chances of reaching the playoffs, making this a must-win match for them. Their desperation could translate into a spirited performance, potentially allowing them to perform at 20% above their usual level.

Milan, on the other hand, is expected to operate at around 40% of their capacity, balancing the need for a victory with the imperative to preserve energy for future fixtures. If Milan can maintain their composure and avoid underestimating their opponents, they should secure a crucial three points.

PSG’s Decline from Elite Status

Meanwhile, in Germany, Paris Saint-Germain faces a daunting task against Bayern Munich. Despite their financial dominance, PSG’s on-field competitiveness has been on a steady decline. Once considered among Europe’s elite, the French side now struggles to keep pace with true powerhouses like Bayern.

When Bayern opened their group stage campaign with a resounding 9-2 victory over Dinamo Zagreb, few could have predicted that four rounds later, they would still be trailing the Croatian side in the standings. While this situation is embarrassing for Bayern supporters, it is precisely the type of unpredictability that UEFA’s revamped Champions League format aims to create.

Bayern’s recent 1-0 victory over Benfica at home helped them regain some stability. Although the margin of victory was narrow, the German giants allowed their opponents only one shot on goal throughout the match. Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, approaching his 40s, barely broke a sweat—a testament to Bayern’s defensive dominance.

PSG’s Struggles Continue

In stark contrast, PSG’s recent performances have been a source of frustration for their fans. Since narrowly defeating Girona in the opening round, the Parisians have failed to secure another victory, even drawing at home against PSV Eindhoven.

Their most recent match, a 1-1 draw with Atlético Madrid, encapsulated PSG’s struggles. An early goal from 18-year-old prospect Warren Zaïre-Emery gave PSG a dream start, but their complacency allowed Atlético to equalize before halftime. Despite head coach Luis Enrique’s tactical adjustments and a series of offensive substitutions, PSG could not capitalize on their chances. Atlético goalkeeper Jan Oblak emerged as the game’s standout performer, thwarting every attempt to regain the lead.

A Lack of Star Power

Since the departure of Kylian Mbappé, PSG has been left with only one world-class player: goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. The current roster, featuring players like Ousmane Dembélé and Marco Asensio, lacks the mental fortitude required for high-stakes matches. Enrique faces an uphill battle in transforming PSG into a team capable of competing at the highest level.

In the post-pandemic era, PSG and Bayern have faced off twice in the Champions League knockout stages, each team eliminating the other once. Currently, both sides lead their respective domestic leagues by a margin of six points, and this gap is likely to widen.

The Balance of Power

While Bayern may not be in peak form, their structural stability and depth give them a clear advantage over PSG. Even if the German side operates at only 20% of their capacity, they are likely to control the match. PSG’s offensive capabilities, though diminished, may still pose a threat, but it will take a near-perfect performance to secure a positive result in Munich.

As the Champions League group stage enters its final rounds, the dynamics within Europe’s top clubs are shifting. AC Milan is on the rise, poised to capitalize on a favorable schedule and build momentum. PSG, however, faces a critical juncture—either they adapt and rediscover their competitive edge, or they risk fading further from Europe’s elite.