Bundesliga Matchday 24: Bayern Munich Find Their Defensive Anchor, Dortmund’s UCL Hopes Still in Jeopardy

The Bundesliga enters its decisive phase with Matchday 24, and two of Germany’s biggest clubs face contrasting realities. Bayern Munich have regained their defensive stability at the perfect time, solidifying their title ambitions. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund’s inconsistency leaves them with an uphill battle to secure a top-four finish.

Bayern Munich: Defensive Resilience Leads the Charge

Bayern Munich’s February performances have been a masterclass in stability. While their attacking firepower has never been in doubt, their defensive solidity was a concern—until Hiroki Itō’s return. The Japanese center-back has emerged as the team’s most reliable defensive presence since recovering from injury in early February, effectively locking down Bayern’s backline.

His presence has significantly reduced the costly errors that plagued Bayern’s defense, particularly those from Kim Min-jae. The South Korean defender, though physically imposing, has been prone to lapses in concentration, which nearly derailed Bayern’s campaign earlier in the season. With Itō back, those mistakes have been kept to a minimum, giving Bayern the defensive composure necessary to sustain their title push.

Bayern’s latest outing against Eintracht Frankfurt was a showcase of Itō’s importance. Not only did he provide his usual defensive assurance, but he also scored his first goal for the club—an indication of his growing confidence. Head coach Vincent Kompany immediately substituted him after the goal, a clear sign of how crucial the defender is for the remainder of the season.

With both league fixtures against Bayer Leverkusen already completed, Bayern have an open road toward reclaiming the Bundesliga crown. Their next challenge comes against a struggling Stuttgart side, who have found it difficult to maintain last season’s overperformance. While Stuttgart currently sit seventh, their form has been concerning, managing just one win in their last five league matches.

Last weekend’s 1-1 draw against Hoffenheim highlighted Stuttgart’s recent issues. Despite taking an early lead, they failed to capitalize on their momentum, allowing their opponents to equalize despite conceding only two shots on target. This lack of killer instinct is troubling, especially given their attacking struggles.

Striker Deniz Undav has worked tirelessly, but his strike partner Serhou Guirassy has failed to find the net in five consecutive league matches. Guirassy’s body language suggests frustration or even a lack of motivation, possibly because his national team prospects remain uncertain regardless of his club form. If he continues to underperform, Stuttgart’s attack will lack the cutting edge required to trouble Bayern’s reinforced defense.

For Bayern, this fixture is a chance to assert dominance. Unlike Borussia Dortmund’s Anton, who was hesitant to punish his former club, Itō will show no mercy to his ex-teammates. If Bayern continue their upward trajectory, they should be able to control the game without needing to push beyond second gear.

Dortmund’s Rollercoaster Season: A False Dawn or Genuine Revival?

While Bayern look comfortable at the top, Borussia Dortmund remain stuck in a frustrating cycle of inconsistency. Their emphatic 6-0 victory over Union Berlin last weekend was a much-needed confidence boost, but whether it marks the beginning of a true resurgence remains to be seen.

The star of the show was undoubtedly Serhou Guirassy, the former Stuttgart striker who produced a stunning four-goal performance. Pascal Groß also shined, registering four assists, as Dortmund finally looked like a team capable of dominating an opponent.

However, Dortmund’s reality is far from promising. Despite their recent thrashing of Union Berlin, they still sit 10th in the league table, a staggering seven points behind the Champions League qualification spots. The inconsistency of their season makes it difficult to believe they can string together enough wins to challenge for the top four.

Their next fixture against St. Pauli should, on paper, be straightforward. The newly promoted side has struggled in recent weeks, suffering three consecutive defeats and sliding dangerously close to the relegation zone. While they still have a six-point cushion above the drop, their recent performances suggest that gap could close quickly.

St. Pauli’s biggest problem is their lack of offensive firepower. They have managed just one goal in their last three league matches and rank dead last in both expected goals and total shots per game. Injuries have further exacerbated their struggles, with key attackers such as Elias Saad, Simon Zoller, and Josuha Guilavogui all unavailable. Without a reliable scoring threat, their ability to trouble Dortmund is severely limited.

Defensively, St. Pauli have been equally vulnerable, conceding six goals in their last three games. Crucial mistakes have repeatedly cost them points, and against a Dortmund side that is finally clicking in attack, their defensive frailties could be exposed once again.

In the reverse fixture earlier this season, Dortmund narrowly secured a 2-1 victory, with Guirassy finding the net. Given Dortmund’s recent offensive explosion, they should be able to secure a more comfortable win this time around. If they maintain their focus, a victory against St. Pauli should be within reach.

Final Thoughts: The Bundesliga’s Power Shift

As the Bundesliga season enters its decisive phase, Bayern Munich look poised to reclaim their throne. Their defensive stability, spearheaded by Itō, has provided the foundation for another title charge.

Dortmund, meanwhile, remain a team of contradictions. One moment, they look like top-four contenders; the next, they struggle for consistency. Their demolition of Union Berlin was impressive, but without a sustained run of form, their hopes of securing a Champions League spot remain slim.

While Bayern march toward the title with confidence, Dortmund’s journey remains uncertain. And in a league where consistency is everything, there is little room for error.