AFC Asian Cup Group D Round 3: Will Japan Concede Again? Is Iraq Entering a New Golden Era?

The third round of Group D matches in the AFC Asian Cup continued on January 24th, with Japan and Indonesia facing off. Japan, expected to easily qualify like defending champions Qatar, struggled due to the fatigue of their Europe-based players, particularly in defense. Their current goal concession rate is four times that of China. Iraq's victory over Japan in the previous round brought back memories of their 2007 Asian Cup triumph. Is Iraq entering a new golden era?

Japan initially planned to secure qualification in the previous round. However, Iraq's powerful performance resulted in a shocking defeat for Japan, known for having the highest tactical and technical proficiency in Asia. Coach Hajime Moriyasu made a surprising decision to start Takuma Asano as the main striker against Iraq, aiming to utilize Asano's speed in counterattacks. But Japan's defensive issues persisted, conceding a goal within the first five minutes, rendering Asano's abilities ineffective. In first-half stoppage time, Iraq exploited the space behind Japan's high defensive line to score again. From a tactical standpoint, Moriyasu should have substituted Asano sooner with physically stronger players like Shintaro Hosoya or Ayase Ueda to challenge Iraq's defense. However, considering it was just the group stage of the Asian Cup and mindful of player morale, Asano continued for an hour before being replaced. Despite Japan's subsequent relentless attacks, they managed to score only once, ending in a disappointing defeat.

Japan's defensive problems are evident, despite their star-studded lineup. Returning from the intense European schedule for the Asian Cup has left the players fatigued, requiring time to regain form. Similarly, South Korea, with an even more impressive defensive lineup, faces the same issue. For future Asian Cups, Japan and South Korea might benefit from fielding more domestic players with fresher legs instead of over-relying on their Europe-based stars.

While Japan's defeat was unexpected, Indonesia's victory over Vietnam in the last round was equally surprising. Indonesia hadn't beaten Vietnam since the 2016 AFF Championship. Since then, Vietnam has rapidly progressed, winning four of their last six encounters with Indonesia. Given Vietnam's stellar performance against Japan, few expected Indonesia to prevail. Yet, not only did Indonesia win, but they also dominated, with Vietnam's goalkeeper earning the highest ratings due to the numerous chances Indonesia created. Despite Japan's underperformance, Indonesia's chances of qualifying remain slim.

For Japan, this match against Indonesia is crucial. A victory would secure their place in the knockout stages. Given their superior squad and the necessity to appease domestic critics, Japan is likely to adopt an aggressive approach. Indonesia, aiming for a second-place finish, will likely go all-out in attack. However, Japan, with their superior skill and depth, is expected to secure a dominant 4-0 victory.

Iraq vs. Vietnam: Who is the Southeast Asian Football Powerhouse?

Iraq's strategy against Japan was spot-on, relying on individual prowess and physicality rather than technical play. This approach mirrored Costa Rica's success against Japan in the World Cup. Japanese players often struggle against physically dominant and aggressive teams. Iraq, with their physical strength and speed, utilized this to their advantage, just as they did in their 2007 Asian Cup victory. This resurgence hints at another golden era for Iraqi football.

Vietnam has made significant strides in recent years, notably reaching the final round of the World Cup qualifiers and achieving notable results against China and Japan. However, such rapid progress is challenging to sustain without adequate time for consolidation. Furthermore, maintaining consistency is difficult, and fluctuating performances are to be expected. Vietnam's players might have grown overconfident, seeing themselves as the dominant Southeast Asian team. However, their defeat to Thailand in the AFF Championship and their recent loss to Indonesia underscore the dangers of complacency.

In their World Cup qualifier in November, Iraq secured a 1-0 away victory over Vietnam, completely nullifying Vietnam's technical strengths. Vietnam managed only one shot on target despite playing at home. Now, playing in Qatar, a less familiar environment, Vietnam is likely to struggle again. Iraq, riding high on their victory over Japan, is poised to secure another decisive win, with a 3-0 scoreline being a probable outcome.

This third round of Group D matches in the Asian Cup is critical for all teams involved. Japan needs to address their defensive woes and leverage their superior skills to ensure a smooth path to the knockout stages. On the other hand, Iraq's physical style and current momentum could see them emerge as a formidable force in the tournament. As the competition progresses, it will be intriguing to see how these narratives unfold and whether Japan can recover from their setbacks and whether Iraq can continue their impressive run.