AFC Asian Cup Group A and B Round 1: China Must Not Underestimate Itself, Is Australia Still Among Asia’s Elite?

The AFC Asian Cup's Group A and B matches continued on January 13th, with China facing off against Tajikistan. Despite recent improvements, Tajikistan has historically struggled in major international tournaments and is not considered stronger than Thailand. This gives China a good chance to play confidently.

While South Korea and Japan have players who play in Europe’s top leagues but don’t make their national teams, Australia’s national team currently has no players from these leagues. This raises the question: is Australia still a top-tier team in Asia?

China vs. Tajikistan - Is the Asian Cup Debutant Really This Strong?

Amidst a tumultuous period, the Chinese national team embarks on another Asian Cup campaign. In the previous edition, China reached the quarterfinals, which was seen as meeting expectations. Achieving the same result this time would be considered an overachievement. In 2023, aside from two World Cup qualifiers, China played nine friendly matches, neither surprising nor disappointing fans. However, a loss to Hong Kong on New Year’s Day 2024 significantly increased fans' frustration, not just because of the result but also due to the three red cards China received. This anger was somewhat alleviated by two World Cup qualifiers where coach Aleksandar Janković demonstrated his capability, especially in the away match against Thailand, where China played with determination and strategic precision. Some speculate that the poor performance against Hong Kong might have been a strategic smokescreen.

Tajikistan’s progress in recent years is undeniable, but it's important to note that this is their first appearance in the Asian Cup. They have never reached the final rounds of the Asian World Cup qualifiers. Given this, is it really necessary for some fans and media to feel so pessimistic? In the Asian Cup qualifiers, Tajikistan beat Myanmar and Singapore but only managed a 0-0 draw against Kyrgyzstan, a somewhat stronger opponent. Simply put, China’s goal against Tajikistan should be to win, not just settle for a draw as many pessimistic fans suggest.

Tajikistan’s attacking core is Umarbayev, who plays for CSKA Sofia in Bulgaria’s top league and is the team’s top scorer. China will need to closely mark him. After watching a motivational documentary, the Chinese team should be mentally and tactically prepared. A 2-1 victory over Tajikistan seems achievable for China.

Australia vs. India - The World's Largest Democracy Makes Consecutive Asian Cup Appearances

Australia remains strong, but like China, they were knocked out in the quarterfinals of the last Asian Cup. While China lost to Iran, Australia’s defeat by the UAE drew significant criticism from their fans and media. This Asian Cup is seen as a chance for redemption. Since joining the AFC, Australia’s level has declined significantly, raising doubts about whether they are still an elite team in Asia. This skepticism is fueled by the fact that no players in Australia’s current Asian Cup squad play in Europe’s top leagues. The most notable player is defender Harry Souttar, who plays for English Championship leaders Leicester City. Despite his impressive performances in the 2022 World Cup, he has only played three matches this season, totaling 98 minutes. Even if Leicester gets promoted to the Premier League, Souttar is unlikely to remain with the team. He is an offensively potent center-back, having scored 10 goals in 22 international appearances, making him the second-highest scorer in the current Australian squad.

India, participating in their fifth Asian Cup and the first time consecutively, has a history of mixed results. Their best performance was as runners-up in the 1964 Asian Cup, but that tournament was not highly competitive. In the last Asian Cup, India was the only team to win a match and still finish last in their group, a result of evenly matched teams in Group A. They notably defeated Thailand 4-1, a significant achievement for the world’s second-most populous country. India’s 39-year-old captain Sunil Chhetri has scored 93 international goals, but he will likely struggle against Australia’s defense, led by Souttar. Australia is expected to secure a comfortable 3-0 victory.

China’s Current Form and Prospects

In 2023, the Chinese national team did not provide many surprises or disappointments. Apart from the two World Cup qualifiers, the team played nine friendly matches, maintaining a relatively stable performance. However, the loss to Hong Kong at the beginning of 2024, coupled with three red cards, raised concerns among fans. This incident overshadowed the progress seen in the World Cup qualifiers, where Janković's strategic acumen was evident, particularly in the away match against Thailand.

Tajikistan's Progress and Potential Threats

Tajikistan’s qualification for their first Asian Cup is a significant achievement. Their performance in the qualifiers, where they managed to beat Myanmar and Singapore and draw with Kyrgyzstan, shows promise. Their key player, Umarbayev, who plays for CSKA Sofia, is a notable threat. China's defense will need to focus on neutralizing his impact to secure a win.

Australia's Decline and Redemption

Australia’s football journey since joining the AFC has been tumultuous. Despite their decline, they remain a formidable team in Asia. The absence of players in Europe’s top leagues is concerning, but players like Harry Souttar bring experience and a goal-scoring threat from defense. Australia's match against India is crucial for restoring their reputation as Asia’s top team.

India's Football Journey and Challenges

India's back-to-back qualifications for the Asian Cup reflect their growth in football. Despite this, they face significant challenges, particularly against stronger teams like Australia. Sunil Chhetri's experience and goal-scoring ability are vital, but the team will need a collective effort to overcome Australia’s defense.

Expectations and Predictions

China's match against Tajikistan is crucial for building confidence. A win would set a positive tone for the tournament. Australia’s match against India is an opportunity to prove their status as an elite team in Asia. Both matches are pivotal in shaping the teams' prospects in the Asian Cup.

Conclusion

The AFC Asian Cup's first round of Group A and B matches highlights the contrasting journeys and prospects of the teams involved. China's potential victory over Tajikistan could boost their morale, while Australia aims to reassert their dominance in Asia with a win against India. These matches set the stage for an exciting and competitive tournament.